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Archive for April 8th, 2009

A Ukrainian Perspective

Wednesday, April 8th, 2009

Julia Pilyavskaya, a Ukrainian on the MBS team provides a perspective of current events:

I read many discussions about Ukraine and how different it is from the

rest of the world. People ask me how it is to live in Ukraine. Well,
certainly it is different, it cannot be the same. We grew up having
different realities, different mentality and conditions of life.

Being isolated from the rest of the world for many years, some things unusual
for foreigners are “normal” for Ukrainians, because they have never
seen different.  And many years will pass before things will change.


Government doesn’t really care about people and not many believe this
will change with new elections. People don’t know where taxes go and
prefer not to pay them. People don’t trust banks and that is why cash
everywhere.

With our “free medicine” one would think twice before going to a hospital without money.  And so on… Most people wonder why change if it’s not going to change.

And now the most popular word is “crisis”. Whenever you go, you hear
it, in the streets, transport, restaurants, homes, television…  90 %
of conversations are only about it, and also prices that go up
constantly and are higher than in Europe, exchange rate, business that
is down, unemployment and certainly government that people can’t trust
anymore.

It will definitely take time for people to understand how to do things
properly, how to work in customers’ service, how to change attitude
and make our country more attractive to live in for ourselves first of
all.

Neutrality for “The Borderlands”?

Wednesday, April 8th, 2009

It looks like the idea of non-alignment is gaining some traction amongst some of Ukraine’s politicians. As we at MBS have advocated previously, it remains one of the best options as it would allow Ukraine to “leap-frog” over other Eastern European nations in terms of development. It would also force Ukraine to reform at a quicker pace as well as decrease security related tensions in the region.

“Ukraine should be a non-aligned state,” according to Volodymyr Lytvyn, the speaker of the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament.

“We must be a non-aligned state. We have to learn to live independently,” he said at a meeting with citizens of the town of Hadiach in Poltava region on Tuesday.

According to the head of the parliament, the question of whether Ukraine should join NATO or not NATO could be a source of conflict in the country.

The position of the people must be taken into account, and most of them oppose Ukraine’s joining NATO, Lytvyn added.

At the same time, he noted that the question on Ukraine’s joining the North Atlantic alliance is not a primary issue now.

(from Interfax)

 

The World Bank has also revised their economic outlook for Ukraine…and it is not very positive.

“Ukraine’s faltering economy will plunge into a deep recession and shrink by 9 percent this year, far worse than previously expected, according to the World Bank”

After nearly a decade of robust growth, the economy is being hit hard by the deterioration of the global economy and the national government’s failure to implement anti-crisis measures, the Bank said in a statement.

Inflation will hit 16.4 percent this year, better than last year’s 22.3 percent but still very high.

In December, the Bank had forecast that Ukraine’s economy would shrink by 4 percent and projected inflation at 13.6 percent. The International Monetary Fund expects the economy to contract by at least 6 percent this year.

Those estimates contradict sharply with government expectations of 0.4 percent growth and 9.5 inflation this year, which many analysts dismiss as unrealistic.

Ukraine’s economic crisis is one of the worst in Europe. Industrial output slumped by 32 percent in January and February compared with a year ago, and output in the construction industry dropped by 57 percent during that period, according to the World Bank.

The national currency, the hryvna, has lost about 40 percent of its value to the dollar since the crisis hit last fall.

Furthermore, constant political turmoil has worsened the effect of the global crisis on Ukraine by stalling the implementation of key anti-crisis policies.

The IMF withheld the second tranche of an emergency $16.4 billion loan this year after the government failed to trim spending and adopt other stabilization measures.

(from AP)