The decline in Ukraine’s population reflects a general trend in many countries. Fertility rates and average family size are declining in populations that have become increasingly urbanized. Suffice to say that those countries that have an intact traditional culture or have not modernized or become affluent, still have positive population growth.

Religion is another factor. Modern societies have become more secular, with the exception of Islamic countries or nations with large Muslim populations.

Other factors affecting population decline are education and life expectancy. Although life expectancy may have increased in post-Soviet Ukraine, it has decreased in Russia.The quality of health care for the average Russian citizen has gone down,  while per capita alcohol and tobacco consumption has gone up…along with HIV rates, and fatal traffic accidents.

Finally, there is the “brain drain” of educated people moving to more developed countries, as well as those leaving to seek business and work opportunities elsewhere. 

Countries that reform their economies to welcome investment, immigration and repatriation could see a huge benefit from population shifts. We can only hope that Ukraine can take advantage of this.

From www.unian.net 

Ukraine to lose 15 million people in 2009-2050

Population will decline by 15 million people in Ukraine in 2009-2050. The UNO Secretary General made a new report on the world demographic trends. It will be discussed at the 42nd session of the Committee on Population and development on March, 30 – April, 3 2009, UN News Center reported, according to MIG news.

“Developed countries will face the challenge of reduction in population. It will happen in 45 states in 2009-2050. In particular, in the Russian Federation population will decline by 33 mn, in Japan – by 25 mn, in Ukraine – by 15 mn, in Germany – by 8,4 mn and in Poland – by 7,7 mn”, is reported.

At the same time, population will grow old within the nearest decades. A number of urban residents will increase. A number of people at the age of 60 and upwards will nearly treble and amount to 2 bn by 2050. 70 percents of people will live in cities by 2050.

According to the report, population will reach to 6,8 bn in July 2009. According to average forecast, it will come to 7 bn in 2012, 8 bn in 2025 and 9 bn in 2045.

Life interval has been increasing further in the majority of regions. People live 67,2 years on the average now. The average age of live is 76,5 years in industrial nations and 65,4 years in developing countries. The average index of life interval comes to 54,6 years in the least developed countries, UNIAN reports.

Whom do you think is more accurate in predicting the future: economists OR astrologists? If I were a betting man, I would go with the astrologists. OK…I know that sounds a bit crazy, but answer this question: have economists been any better about predicting the future?

At least we can laugh a bit when astrologists put on their pointy hats and pontificate. We assume…perhaps correctly so, that there is no real science behind their rants. Why trust economists? If we measured the predictions of many economists and astrologists, we would probably find them about equal in their forecasting abilities.

 At least the prognostications of astrologists can have a comforting effect, since we can realistically believe that stellar, solar and lunar movements control events to a great extent. Economists tend to fixate on their own version of stars as well as theories based upon arcane data that only they know how to decipher.

Shakespeare did point us in the right direction: the fault is not in the stars, but in our selves.

from www.unian.net

Crisis in Ukraine may last for five years – astrologists

Astrologist Olena Kalantarova forecasts that Ukraine will see a year of ordeal, and the crisis in the country will last for not less than five years.

O.Kalantarova disclosed her forecast to “Segodnya” daily (#26 dated February 10, 2009).

“The situation will stabilize more or less late in March-early in April. And May will bring a financial vortex. A critical situation will loom in October, when we may be drawn into an international conflict. A scandal, connected with the President of Ukraine, will happen in this period. Many riots will take place in 2009”, the astrologist unveiled.

Another astrologist, Ihor Syvak, also forecasts a peak of social protests in September and October.

According to Ihor Nikishyn, head of the Ukrainian Astrologic Institute, February and March will be the most critical period for the national currency – hryvnia. “Hryvnia’s value will begin to stabilize in April, but it will again fluctuate in August and early in October”, I.Nikishyn forecasted.

In his opinion, the national currency may finally stabilize by end of year.

“Since end of April, we may also expect for a growth of demand for steel, on which our economics depends. But the growth will take place very slowly”, the astrologist forecasted.

Although there may be gloating on the part of some Russians regarding the fate of their neighbors in Ukraine, this article from Russia Today (ww.russiatoday.com) does reflect the reality here.

As the Ukrainian government goes begging for loans around the World with the IMF holding  back on the next tranche of a promised loan, the hryvnia experiencing new lows daily, and workers being laid off throughout Ukraine, the “crisis” is certainly getting worse. The political stalemate is adding to the pain.

Workers suffer under deepening economic crisis in Ukraine

The economic crisis in Ukraine is escalating, and while the government is pointing fingers at each other, social unrest is growing as people lose their jobs or remain unpaid for months.

The crisis is most visible in the Ukrainian city of Kherson, where more than a thousand workers at a combine harvester factory have not received any wages since September.

“They were forcing us to retire. But I didn’t. Where else do we have to go? It’s the same thing everywhere,” said one disgruntled factory worker.

The average salary here is around $US 200, which is barely enough to make ends meet as prices in Ukraine are growing rapidly.

Aleksandra Tkachenko works at the factory and says that she lives in the fear that tomorrow she’ll have nothing left to be able to feed her family. Her entire family now lives off the pension of Aleksandra’s husband, which is less than $US 100 a month.

Recently, her husband suffered a brain hemorrhage and the strain is taking its toll.

“You can’t imagine what a life we life. I’ve spent half of the pension on medicine for my husband, but that won’t even last till the end of the month,” says Tkachenko.

The owners of the factory say they can’t pay the salaries because the combine harvesters are not being sold. The situation in Kherson is one of the first explosions of public rage in Ukraine over the current economic crisis. Experts claim work at almost all factories and mines in the country is either suspended or under threat.
 
By spring, unemployment is expected to grow by four times, topping almost four million people. The public outcry to the consequences of the economic crisis that is gripping Ukraine is getting louder, as more workers put down their tools to protest. 

Unemployment in Ukraine is soon expected to hit levels not seen since the fall of the Soviet Union. Public opinion indicates that what people want is for the government to stop the infighting and to give them the helping hand they desperately need. The crisis of trust among the country’s political elite isn’t helping the situation either.

The president and the opposition blame the government of Yulia Timoshenko for failing to tackle the crisis, or find the right ways to spend the billions of dollars loaned from the International Monetary fund.

Timoshenko says the government needs more money and fewer obstacles from both the parliament and the president. Her latest move – a request for more loans, including five billion dollars from Russia – has yet again provoked the wrath of the president.

“President Yushchenko says the step undertaken by the government without his knowledge is unacceptable and has obvious signs of corruption,” says Irina Vannikova from the Ukrainian Presidential Administration.

With the president and his government failing to agree upon ways out of the crisis, the country plunges ever deeper into a recession, leaving millions of people without work, and in the fear that they will soon have nothing to put on the table.

OK…it is one thing for Ukraine to send letters begging for money to the USA, the EU, even China…but Russia? What are they thinking in Kyiv? Sure…Russia will loan you the money. They may be running a bit short due to propping up rubles and oligarchs, but they will find some spare cash as they know they will gain considerably from any arrangement.

After all, they promised the Kyrgyz Republic some money too. However, the conditions-regardless of what is officially denied-is that a U.S. base be closed. Imagine what they will demand of Ukraine?

From www.ft.com:

Ukraine pushes for loans to meet shortfall

By Roman Olearchyk in Kiev

Ukraine has appealed for emergency loans from the world’s richest countries to help support its economy, which has been battered by the global financial crisis.

Yulia Tymoshenko, prime minister of Ukraine, said her government had sent letters to the US, Russia, China, Japan and the European Union asking for loans to fill a shortfall in budget revenues for this year.

 “We have already received a positive response from some countries, including Russia,” Ms Tymoshenko said at the Munich Security Conference at the weekend. “Russia is ready to sign such loan agreements.” She did not clarify how much Kiev was seeking to borrow but reports in Ukraine suggested Russia could lend $5bn (€3.9bn, £3.4bn).

Ms Tymoshenko said Ukraine was keen to harmonise relations with Moscow, soured after last month’s gas prices dispute. She insisted Kiev would stick to a western integration agenda that included efforts to join the European Union and Nato.

News that Ukraine was seeking emergency loans amid frozen credit markets comes days after a senior International Monetary Fund delegation warned of “serious problems” brewing in Ukraine’s economy.

The fund delegation ended its one-week visit to Kiev last week but provided no clear signal on whether it would grant further disbursements from a $16.5bn standby facility agreed last year.

Ukraine received a first tranche of $4.5bn last November. Future disbursements depend on the implementation of tough conditions and are needed to keep Ukraine’s currency, the hryvnia, stable. It lost nearly 40 per cent of its value in 2008.

The IMF’s concerns centre on Kiev’s 2009 budget, which has a 3 per cent deficit in spite of a fund stipulation it be deficit-free. It also seeks a freeze on social spending at a time when more than 1m out of a population of 46m have lost their jobs.

Ukraine’s gross domestic product is expected to contract by around 5 per cent this , thus curbing budget revenues, complicating the state’s ability to rescueshaky banks and to provide unemployment benefits.

Ukraine is struggling to tame annual inflation of more than 20 per cent and toadjust to a fourth stiff price rise on natural gas imports from Russia in as manyyears.

The US and other western nations are keen to stabilise Ukraine for geopolitical as well as economic purposes, given its important position in Eastern Europe as a neighbour of Russia.

Technorati Tags: Ukraine, Russia, United States, European Union, China, Kyiv, MBS Ltd., Anton Olff, Kyrgyz Republic, military bases, loans, Roman Olearchyk, global financial crisis, Japan, Munich Security Conference, Yuliya Tymoshenko, Moscow, NATO, International Monetary Fund, hryvnia, gross domestic product, natural gas, geopolitics

From www.reuters.com:

Fitch sees more E.Europe downgrades

Ratings agency Fitch expects more downgrades in emerging Europe after cutting Russia`s rating this week, it said on Thursday, warning political risk was a mounting threat to creditworthiness in the region, Reuters reported.

Head of emerging European sovereigns Edward Parker said that with nine countries in the region on negative outlook and the financial crisis deepening, creditworthiness in a string of countries was deteriorating.

“I would expect that we would see more negative ratings actions,” he told Reuters in a telephone interview.

Parker said deepening economic pain and rising unemployment across the region heightened the risk of political instability and governments failing to take austerity measures out of fear of rising unrest.

“Clearly, there is going to be a rise in political risk,” he said. “Obviously, political shocks by their nature are often unpredictable but as well as that we would be particularly concerned over the risk of governments failing to pursue prudent and responsible policies.”

He would not say which country would likely be next to follow Russia, which on Wednesday suffered its first rating cut from Fitch in a decade on slumping reserves, corporate and banking problems and economic contraction.

But he said Fitch was watching the upcoming review of Ukraine`s International Monetary Fund deal particularly carefully.

Fitch has said previously that any failure of that deal would lead to a further negative move on Ukraine, which has suffered a currency slump and deep recession as its steel industry and banking sector suffered from the global financial crisis.

In contrast, he said that Turkey might be able to survive without an IMF deal with its current rating intact. Turkey has held back from concluding an IMF deal ahead of local elections.

“We would see an IMF deal as a positive development for Turkey,” he said. “But if one was not agreed they might be able to find other financing and it would not alone be enough for negative ratings action.”

Parker said Fitch was continuing to watch Russia closely in the aftermath of its downgrade, with ongoing low oil prices, any further loss of reserves, worsening of corporate balance sheets or difficulty refinancing debt or rising political risk potentially prompting further action.

Both Russia and Kazakhstan have allowed their currencies to depreciate after spending considerable reserves defending them. Parker said those devaluations had been necessary to take into account the drastic fall in oil prices.

With the Baltic states also entering deep recessions, some analysts believe their currencies — either pegged or trading in narrow bands — might also be forced to devalue.

Parker said this would potentially be negative for their ratings.

“It would make it more difficult for companies and others to repay foreign currency debt and it would undermine balance sheets,” he said.

Currency falls in Central and Eastern Europe were already having a similar effect, he said, with the high proportion of foreign currency loans in Hungary making it more vulnerable than other regional economies such as Poland and the Czech Republic.Technorati

Tags: www.reuters.com, Anton Olff, MBS Ltd., Fitch, Europe, Russia, credit rating, unemployment, austerity, oil reserves, International Monetary Fund, steel industry, Ukraine, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Baltic States, Eastern Europe, Czech Republic

We expect more news regarding privatizations very shortly. The “jewel in the crown” will be agricultural land. MBS Ltd. as well as its sister company, BOZONGO.COM will be monitoring this development as it will be a bonanza for investors to buy some of the best farm land in the world at very competitive prices. Stay tuned….

Article below is from www.unian.net

Government plans to put Ukrtelecom for privatization in March

The government plans to carry out privatization of Ukrtelecom OJSC as early as in March.

According to an UNIAN correspondent, Transport and Communication Minister of Ukraine Yosyp Vinsky said this to journalists on Wednesday.

“This is the stance of the Minister and the Prime Minister. All conditions of privatization are ready. As soon as they finally determine the person who will announce it [when the head of the State Property Fund of Ukraine is appointed - UNIAN], the process will kick off… Next week the announcement may be made, and in 75 days the procedure of auction will take place”, Y.Vinskiy said.

According to the Minister, the privatization of this object is currently real and possible. The initial price of the enterprise is likely to make nearly 25 billion hryvnias [~US $3.12 billion].

“My position is not less than 25 billion hryvnias. I guess an investor will appear who will buy Ukrtelecom at this price under these conditions”, he said.

UNIAN footnote. Ukrtelecom OJSC is one of the leading national communication operators. It is a monopolist at the market of fixed local communication, covering 80% of the market and more than 10 million subscribers.

This update is from www.rgemonitor.com. They are one of the more accurate forecasters…

“While Russia is unlikely to default on its sovereign debt, its corporate and financial sector debts now outstrip its stock of foreign exchange reserves ($386 bn in mid-January 2008). Although 2008 refinancing was accomplished, more than $110 bn in foreign debt will come due in 2009 and the depreciation of the rouble raises the risk of a cascade of non-payments. Russia’s economic indicators have quickly reversed along with oil prices and the country is likely to run its first ‘twin deficit’ in a decade in the midst of a sharp economic contraction in 2009. The fall in the value of the rouble, lack of finance, and the plunge in consumption (jobs are being shed at a faster pace than during the 1998 financial crisis) are also causing imports to contract which may limit the deterioration of the current account. Yet, the rapid depletion of reserves and use of the assets in its wealth and reserve funds to finance its fiscal deficit (a deficit of as much as 10% of GDP is possible in 2009) may trigger further ratings downgrades. All of this is likely to weigh on the rouble which has crashed through the new trading band. 

Like Russia, Kazakhstan saved the bulk of its oil windfall, but Kazakh banks and companies borrowed heavily and have now turned to the government for funds. Kazakhstan will thus be left with little cushion if commodity prices continue to be weak through 2009-10. Further capital flight is possible if oil prices remain at current levels - uncertainty about the value of the tenge, which is likely to be devalued, could trigger a speculative attack putting pressure on the fragile banking system that is struggling to meet or roll over the foreign debts due for repayment in 2009. Kazakhstan was one of few oil exporters to run a current account deficit routinely during the boom years, and this deficit will widen in 2009. 

Ukraine will see the sharpest slowdown in Eastern Europe in 2009 with a growth contraction of at least 6%. Its terms of trade is set to deteriorate further due to weak external demand and prices for key exports, especially metals. With steel exports falling along with the slowdown in FDI inflows, balancing the current account will be a major challenge in 2009. Yields on Ukraine’s $105.4 bn of government and corporate debt are amongst the highest for any country with dollar-denominated debt. If the hryvnia-dollar exchange rate widens further, mass loan defaults are expected. The latest gas accord with Russia increases Ukraine’s spending on gas by almost 7% at a time when Ukraine’s economy is surviving on the first installment of the IMFs $16.4 bn bailout. The IMF fiscal conditions are likely to rein in social expenditure including likely public sector wage arrears in 2009, deepening the Ukraine’s political divisions.”

Technorati Tags: Ukraine Privatization, Anton Olff, MBS Ltd., Investor Weekly, Concorde Capital, Ukraine, Ukrainian State Property Fund, privatization, Ukrtelecom, Odesa Portside, Turboatom, Azovkable, Rosava, Ukrainian National Airlines, Kyiv Motorcycle

In this article from the www.nasdaq.com, a well respected former Russian diplomat addresses the political infighting that has paralyzed the Ukrainian Government. Ambassador Chernomydrin is absolutely correct when he warns of the danger to Ukraine from the current instability. He is also correct in his assessment of the importance of Ukraine as a strategic partner for Russia, in terms of trade and security. 

We disagree however, with the Ambassador’s negative characterization regarding the glorification of Ukrainian nationalists who fought the Soviets during World War II. We can comprehend why the Ambassador, as well many Russians can feel the way they do. On the other hand, they should not take it personally. Soviet Communism was evil, not Russia.  Having stated the obvious, we should also acknowledge the irony of Soviet Communists as liberators from Nazism. Stalingrad may not have been fought to free Europe, but that was the effect, intended or not.  

The nationalists who fought the Soviets should be recognized as being on the right side of history. It is also very dubious to assume that a people who suffered under both Communism and Fascism, would erect a statue to honor either one. 

Ukraine political infighting threatens its statehood – Russia

Russia`s ambassador to Kyiv said Monday that Ukraine risked ceasing to exist as a state if its politicians don`t stop infighting that has already caused political deadlock, AFP reported.

“Such a state would hardly survive or would be able to survive for a long time,” Viktor Chernomyrdin, veteran Russian ambassador to Ukraine, told a news conference in Moscow.

He urged Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko to stop their feud and speak to Moscow with one voice.

“It`s important to us, we need this,” he said. “We really mean that Ukraine is a strategic partner for us.”

Following a dispute over prices, Russia on New Year`s Day cut gas supplies to Ukraine, disrupting energy flows to a swathe of European countries amid a cold winter spell. Supplies were restored two weeks later thanks to a deal agreed to by Tymoshenko and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Yushchenko`s administration has said the agreement was more favorable to Moscow and might be revisited.

Tymoshenko and Yushchenko were allies in the Orange Revolution that ousted pro-Russian rule in Ukraine but have since fallen out in an acrimonious power struggle marked by increasingly angry accusations.

Asked by AFP who among the Ukrainian politicians was Moscow`s most preferred partner, Chernomyrdin declined to take sides.

“This is truly a painful question. Of course, it is interesting to work with those who show you goodwill and whom you show goodwill in response, as in any business,” he said.

Ukraine is expected to hold a presidential vote in late 2009 or early 2010. During 2004 presidential elections in Ukraine, Putin congratulated pro-Russian candidate Viktor Yanukovych twice before the official results were out, a move derided as a major Kremlin faux pas.

According to a poll released in Ukraine in early January, Yushchenko`s support plunged to a humiliating 2.4%. At 22.3%, Yanukovych was the front-runner, followed by Tymoshenko, who scored 13.9%.

Chernomyrdin said economic relations between the two countries flourished despite the tensions, saying Ukraine`s trade turnover with Russia was on par with that with the European Union.

“This is what Russia is to Ukraine,” he said. “It`s a pity they in Ukraine do not understand this.”

He also said Kiev should stop glorifying local nationalist leaders who fought against the Soviet Union during World War II.

“They will next erect a monument to Hitler. It`s shameful and painful.”