MBS Blog

Went for a run early morning this Christmas Day here in Odessa. At the end of my run on the historic Primorskiy Bulvar not far from the Potemkin Steps, I noticed a throng of people holding banners and flags saying, “I speak Russian!”  I talked with a few observers and apparently people were peacefully protesting the increasing statutory imposition of the Ukrainian language in all aspects of life.

The Ukrainian Parliament recently passed a law that required TV, advertising and motion pictures to be in the Ukrainian language only. Television programs and movies are now required to be dubbed into the Ukrainian language. It is kind of strange as you can still hear the original language (Russian, English, French and Italian) with dubbed Ukrainian overlayed at a higher volume. For me, it is annoying but educational, as I can pick up some of the local language easier. For many Ukrainians, it is more than an annoyance.  

I have heard that some people walked out of a movie theatre showing the latest James Bond film due to this dubbing. The mediocre film (everyone is a movie critic) might have been a motivating factor as well. Nontheless, many people are feeling very uncomfortable with the change.

Amongst the Russian speaking population in Ukraine-and this would include the population in the South and East of Ukraine, but in reality…most of Ukraine-Russian is the language of choice.  Ukrainian is used more widely in Kyiv and in western cities like Lviv, but everyone understands the Russian language due to the Soviet “occupation” if  you will.

This brings many issues to fore. Ukraine is a divided nation and unable to reconcile its past. This is keeping it from moving forward to achieve its full potential. Of course, I am a guest in this nation and I tread as softly as I can. However, it pains one…and there are many who feel the same… to think that a country like Ukraine-which has so much to offer…and so much to gain, cannot seem to break the shackles of its past.

This does NOT mean that Ukraine should purge itself of its Russian ties and past-regardless of the pain associated with it (Holodomar for example). Russia and Ukraine are bound together on so many levels that neither can be separated to the extent that they may seek. In a sense, both Russia and Ukraine-as peoples and as cultures…are parents of children. They can “divorce,” but they will always be tied by their mutual connection to their offspring. The descendents are the modern nations of Russia and Ukraine, both born in Kyvian Rus. 

While it understandable that Ukraine would want a separate identity as much as sovereignty, it needs to chart a course that takes into account the Russian within and without. It is not just about the power of Russia or Russian influence-though this is important and cannot be ignored-but also about the positive aspects of these ties. One can wish that Russia had a different type of government, economy or leadership, but Russia will always be there, and defiantly so.

Geography may be destiny but it is up to people to shape that destiny. Ukraine has a unique opportunity because of geography. As the “borderlands” between what is East and West, Christian and Islamic, between Europe-now the expansionist European Union- and Russia..which is European and Asian, and neither…Ukraine is perfectly situated to take advantage of its position. The model for Ukraine should be Switzerland. 

Why Switzerland? Well…Switzerland was at one time a poor agricultural country bordered by neighbors who could be hostile and threatening. The multi-ethnic Swiss were able to transform their nation into an economic powerhouse while maintaining their sovereignty. Of course, the indomitable Alps helped keep Switzerland secure to a great extent. However, there other factors.

The most important of these was the establishment of a federal republic in Switzerland. Each canton…which is like a state…has an enormous degree of autonomy within the Swiss Confederation.  Every canton sets its own tax policy that allows for competition and economic growth. Imagine if Ukraine’s provinces (called Oblasts) were allowed to compete with each other? This would increase the efficiency of the overall economy.

The acceptance, indeed the promotion of multiple languages within Swiss society also gives the nation an advantage. The Swiss speak the languages of Europe and the international language: English. As any visitor to Zurich, Geneva and Lugano can tell you, each region or canton has a dominant language, but all are officially recognized.

Official recognition and acceptance should be the aim of Ukraine. In this way, the friction, factions and “Balkanization” in a multi-lingual society are kept to a minimum. This could give Ukraine an advantage over Russia as well as other East European neighbors, especially if Ukraine ALSO adopted English as an official language. 

There are other steps Ukraine could take:

1. Neutrality- A neutral Ukraine would be a secure Ukraine. Ukraine has a large enough population to raise a sizeable military force in addition to the force it already has. Neutrality…which would mean NO to NATO, would also signal to Russia that Ukraine was not a threat, while also reminding Russia of Ukraine’s determination to maintain her sovereignty. For Russia, a neutral Ukraine is a buffer against any encroachment-perceived or real- by Europe or any other alliances that exist today or in the future.
2. Economic Independence- like Switzerland, Ukraine should say NO to the European Union. It is the EU that needs Ukraine more than Ukraine needs Europe. The recent rejection of a membership action plan (MAP) for Ukraine into NATO…which is also seen as a precursor to EU membership, could be remembered as the strongest nail in the NATO coffin. However, Ukrainians- a majority of whom do not want to be in NATO-should thank the vision less politicians in Western Europe.  Ukraine needs to have the flexibility to develop in its own way, while having the ability to foster direct bi-lateral ties with the West as well as Russia. By staying out of the EU, Ukraine can realize its potential as an emerging market making its own decisions with nations such as China, India and the USA. 
3. Free Market Economy- Ukraine should continue the reforms it has begun towards liberalization of the economy. Low taxes…which the EU cannot compete against due to its bias towards the type of socialism that Ukraine experienced under the Soviets, as well as its aging populations dependent on weath transfers to the most unproductive parts of its economy…would attract companies as well as stimulate entrepreneurship. Currently, Ukraine is too dependent on the steel industry. It needs foreign investment and technology, especially in the agricultural sector as well as development of its banking sector. Imagine if Ukraine established the same type of  bank secrecy laws that made Switzerland prosperous? Europeans, and especially Russians, would flock to Ukraine to save and invest.
4. Crimea- When Ukraine has taken the steps above, the government in Kyiv might want to propose a referendum for residents of Crimea. In this way, those in Crimea can choose whether they want this region to be part of Russia again, or remain in the new Ukrainian Confederation (thinking Swiss again). While most in Crimea have expressed their preference for Russia, they could decide differently if  Ukraine were on a different path than its current course. This could also preempt an almost certain move by Russia to retake Crimea overtly, or through the fait-accompli of passport issuance by Moscow. It would also strengthen Ukraine as a democracy ruled by law and the consent of the people….even those that speak Russian by choice.

It may be too much to hope for, but if Ukraine were to take some of these steps, it could go a long way towards making this nation prosperous, as well as limit the damage caused by 21st century version of the  ”Great Game,” where Ukraine has been reduced to the status of a pawn, ready to be sacrificed at the whims of others.

Technorati Tags: Christmas Day, Anton Olff, MBS Ltd., Odessa, Ukraine, Primorskiy Bulvar, Russian language, Ukrainian language, Ukrainian Parliament, TV, advertising, motion pictures, English, French, Italian, dubbing, James Bond, South Ukraine, East Ukraine, Kyiv, Lviv, Soviet occupation, Soviet union, Russian culture, Kyvian Rus, Holodomar, geography, Switzerland, European Union, Christian, Islamic, Asia, agricultural, multi-ethnic, Swiss Confederation, Oblasts, cantons, Zurich, Geneva, Lugano, balkanization, factions, official language, neutrality, sovereignty, NATO, China, India, USA, socialism, banking sector, agricultural, entrepreneurship, Crimea, Great Game