Economic Forecast and the Weather
Economics has often been called the “dismal science.” Having known many economists in my past life working as a wage slave in the corporate world, I can say that it was not the “science” that was necessarily dismal, but the practitioners. This is especially true these days. The same economists that were saying “the fundamentals” of the Global Economy were sound 6 months ago, are now in the doom and gloom mode. In other words, it is not going to just rain…but rain for 40 days and 40 nights!!
A person of means and resources might want to start building an ark…or maybe just buy gold bullion and store it in a bank vault in Switzerland…but the rest of us will have to learn to swim in some very deep water (or in sewage) if the deluge comes.
The Nostradamuses of our age…Gerald Celente for example, is predicting Depression II, another American Revolution with widespread tax riots in the United States by 2012. Certainly, it is a possibilty given the recent riots in Iceland. However, those of us with a eye for opportunities (entrepreneurs, shameless exploiters and capitalists) know that would be an excellent time to own a factory making Ronald Reagan AND Che Guevara t-shirts.
….and what is the current forecast? Well…it depends on whom you ask. Most of the data out there suggests that the economies of the developed world will not be growing at all…but NOT the emerging market economies. According to the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), Russia is projected to grow at over 3% versus the 7.3% it had been prior to the Global Meltdown (and declining oil prices). Indeed, most of Eastern and Central Europe will see positive net growth. Whatever the forecast, there will be a lot of pain…but also a lot of long term opportunities.
Bring an umbrella. However, make sure to turn it upside down on occasion as it could be raining “pennies from heaven”
Anton Olff
Technorati Tags: Central Europe, Che Guevara, Depression, Eastern Europe, EBRD, Economics, European Bank of Reconstruction and Development, forecast, Gerald Celente, Global Economy, gold, Iceland, Ronald Reagan, Russia, Switzerland, United States
Tags: Central Europe, Che Guevara, Depression, Eastern Europe, EBRD, Economics, forecast, Gerald Celente, Global Economy, gold, Iceland, Ronald Reagan, Russia, Switzerland, United States
